JSE TOP 40 Index Weekly Note – 07 Oct 2024
The maturing bull trend could have moderate further shorter -term upside potential.
Despite the short-term bullish bias, it is increasingly difficult to see a medium- term extended bullish scenario from current market levels.
Recent formations and price action suggest volatile and overlapping moves over the foreseeable future.
USD/ZAR Weekly Report – 07 Oct 2024
For the technicians and perma- Rand bears we have added a short term second alternative outcome analysis.
This is a rare formation with a low probability of materializing. A breach of 17.35 will negate this outcome
Shanghai Composite Index Update – 02 Oct 2024
Our long- term bullish stance on this market seems to be materializing at last.
Initial bullish price action has been sharp and is supportive of further gain potential over time.
The market is currently overbought and volatile interim swings are likely.
The view is purely technical. No fundamentals have been harmed or abused in any way!
JSE TOP 40 Index- The long term Outlook – 01 Oct 2024
A fair amount of detail outlining the general bull trend as an upward sloping wedge increases the risk of being wrong.
Recent medium term price action unfortunately points to this alternative as the preferred outcome.
It is not in line with the prevailing sentiment and our personal fundamental stance.
Cryptocurrencies: The Bigger Picture – 01 Oct 2024
Bitcoin and Ethereum technical pictures continue to diverge.
While BTC is consolidating as part of a cyclical bull trend, the long-term outlook for ETH remains more muted with volatile moves within a wide trading range.
The goal of long-term analyses is to give a visual representation of trend potential.
It is not intended as a trading or timing input but does confirm the medium- and shorter-term views.
It is also a useful input onto strategic decision making.
US Dollar- The Bigger Picture – 30 Sep 2024
Our medium to longer term bearish stance on the Greenback is ongoing.
Further weakening is expected to reach our long-held target levels.
This is unlikely to be the move that perma- bears expect to “ dethrone the US Dollar” . It is more likely a bearish correction in a cyclical bull trend.
Rand vs major Currencie – 30 Sep 2024
The general outlook of Rand strength within larger consolidation patterns has materialized during September.
In the case of the USD/ZAR pair an extended bear phase had to be considered after the breach of initial targets, that is approaching the extended target area. The USD/ZAR move can largely be ascribed to recent USD weakness against most currencies.
The USD/ZAR and EUR/USD pairs have become extremely oversold and while there is short term room for further modest downside, the risk of bullish corrections is increasing.
JSE TOP 40 Index Update – 25 Sep 2024
The recent gains have been everything but a classic trending bull market.
Overlapping and volatile gains can be defined by a price channel.
Whilst this type of price action is common in corrections and consolidations, it is quite rare during general upside and making new highs.
The most plausible alternative/explanation for his is that a large and long term upward sloping wedge is forming.
The illustrated scenarios are self- explanatory.
US Dollar Weekly – 25 Sep 2024
The general US Dollar bearish trend remains intact and the most probable medium term technical outcome.