South African Markets

Global equity rhetoric and sentiment has recently become quite positive , due to several fundamental factors.

The technical scenario is in line with any immediate bullish bias, but the longer-term outlook remains more circumspect and even negative.

Our mandate is to give an objective technical perspective on analysed markets, independent of any other forecasting techniques.

Re- assessment and negation levels fortunately qualify the technical view and is, as always, important.

The technical bearish stance is materializing and remains valid.

There are two alternative outcomes once the initial target area has been reached.

In this report we discuss both the preferred (less bearish) and alternative viewpoints.

Resource stocks are due a decent rebound from oversold and unloved conditions.

Whilst this might not yet be the end of the recent sharp bear trend, the longer-term outlook is that of maturing downside.

There is a glimmer of light at the end of the long term tunnel.

The medium-term bearish outcome defies belief but is unfortunately the best objective technical outcome.

The bear trend is currently still unconfirmed and as such just a good idea, until pivotal support has been broken.

Pivotal and negation levels remain important for successful navigation of the market.

The expected consolidation phase in the USD/ZAR pair is open to some interpretation.

While the shorter- term outcome is similar in nature between the two feasible alternatives, the long- term consequences and trend implications are different.

As always, developing price action will give us early insight into outcome probabilities.

The weekly JSE Top 40 Index update.

The monthly technical analysis update on the Rand against USD, GBP and Euro.

The periodic Copper technical analysis update.

Disclaimer: This is a purely technical view and no fundamentals have been harmed in the process.

While our medium-term bullish stance for 2024 has materialized, the recent break of previous tops suggests the possibility of extended gains beyond the long-held target levels.

Unfortunately, the break has come under overbought and diverging market conditions. The bullish advance over the past year has also been more corrective than trending.

The formation/ trend is therefore quite difficult to pinpoint with conviction.

There is a lot that we are uncertain about, so let us try and simplify it to what we do know:

Price action is the primary indicator. As long as we remain above the crucial pivot support the bias should remain bullish.
A price break below this same level would, however, be quite bearish and volatile.

“ The trend is your friend- except in the end when it bends”

Our medium-term bearish outlook on USD/ZAR is approaching important target support.

Moderate further downside in this pair remains part of a multi- year consolidation and most probably not the beginning of a long -term bear trend.

Bearish US Dollar sentiment has become commonplace as the major driver behind global currency moves, including the Rand.