South African Markets

While our medium-term bullish stance for 2024 has materialized, the recent break of previous tops suggests the possibility of extended gains beyond the long-held target levels.

Unfortunately, the break has come under overbought and diverging market conditions. The bullish advance over the past year has also been more corrective than trending.

The formation/ trend is therefore quite difficult to pinpoint with conviction.

There is a lot that we are uncertain about, so let us try and simplify it to what we do know:

Price action is the primary indicator. As long as we remain above the crucial pivot support the bias should remain bullish.
A price break below this same level would, however, be quite bearish and volatile.

“ The trend is your friend- except in the end when it bends”

Our medium-term bearish outlook on USD/ZAR is approaching important target support.

Moderate further downside in this pair remains part of a multi- year consolidation and most probably not the beginning of a long -term bear trend.

Bearish US Dollar sentiment has become commonplace as the major driver behind global currency moves, including the Rand.

A short update on the JSE TOP 40 index.

The market has reached and breached our immediate bullish target levels.

This results in an adjustment to the view for an extended bull phase to higher target levels.

The market is unfortunately over- extended, giving any bullish bias a high risk factor.

A technical analysis note on Sasol, as requested by an All-In-One Member.

Many adages come to mind here, but the most apt is one I use from time to time:

“Sometimes we are not sure, and other times we just don’t know”

A well established, medium- term positive technical outlook on the Rand is now also becoming commonplace in the fundamental narrative. This could lead to further expected Rand appreciation.

As prevailing trend matures, we need to remain circumspect.

It is in a rattlesnakes’ nature to strike when least expected.

The weekly JSE Top 40 index update.

The medium- term view of a bearish corrective phase is confirmed by volatile and overlapping price action.

Longer term investors should remain calm with a definite re- emergence of the cyclical bull trend outcome on the other side of this volatile mess.

Traders and speculators can capitalize on the interim expected trends that should occur.

The important activation and negation market levels are even more crucial in volatile corrections, as highlighted in the report.

The weekly Rand technical analysis update.

Please find attached the weekly JSE Top 40 Index update.

Please find attached the JSE Top 40 benchmark index update.

Note: There are unfortunately several feasible medium-term outcomes.

The illustrated scenarios are preferred.

Please find attached the weekly JSE Top 40 index technical analysis update

Note: The medium-term view has been adjusted to a more bearish bias, resulting from increasingly overlapping gains.