South African Markets

Please find attached the month-end Rand report where we examine the local currency against the major global counterparts.

The JSE TOPI Index update.

The USD/ZAR medium- and short- term expectations remain in line with recent market moves.

We expect volatile range trading within medium term parameters for the rest of the year.

The occurrence of a rare running correction with extended bullish consequences remains possible,

but is not the preferred outcome. We will keep a close watch as price action develops and clarifies the situation over time.

An overlapping longer term bull phase suggests ongoing volatile moves with an upside bias over time.

The medium term view of moderate further gains remains valid.

Medium term moves have remained within long term consolidation parameters and have also consistently exhibited corrective traits.

This suggests that while the USD/ZAR pair should remain within stated parameters.

Volatility and ad hoc moves is likely to continue for the rest of 2024.

The maturing bull trend could have moderate further shorter -term upside potential.

Despite the short-term bullish bias, it is increasingly difficult to see a medium- term extended bullish scenario from current market levels.

Recent formations and price action suggest volatile and overlapping moves over the foreseeable future.

For the technicians and perma- Rand bears we have added a short term second alternative outcome analysis.

This is a rare formation with a low probability of materializing. A breach of 17.35 will negate this outcome

A fair amount of detail outlining the general bull trend as an upward sloping wedge increases the risk of being wrong.

Recent medium term price action unfortunately points to this alternative as the preferred outcome.

It is not in line with the prevailing sentiment and our personal fundamental stance.

The recent gains have been everything but a classic trending bull market.

Overlapping and volatile gains can be defined by a price channel.

Whilst this type of price action is common in corrections and consolidations, it is quite rare during general upside and making new highs.

The most plausible alternative/explanation for his is that a large and long term upward sloping wedge is forming.

The illustrated scenarios are self- explanatory.

The market is currently testing our long held bearish target levels. A bottom has, however not been formed or confirmed yet.

In this report we discuss feasible short term alternative outcomes that could materialize,

given current extended market conditions, importance of cluster support, as well as the prevailing bullish sentiment and conviction.