South African Markets
USD/ZAR Update – 06 Mar 2025
Please find an interim Rand update. As requested.
JSE TOP Update – 03 Mar 2025
Please find the JSE TOP 40 analysis, as requested.
Price action remains in line with our medium and short term outlook.
Weekly Rand Report – 04 Nov 2024
Please find attached the weekly USD/ZAR report.
JSE TOP 40 Index: The Bigger Picture – 29 Oct 2024
Please find attached the monthly, long term JSE TOP 40 index update.
Rand Monthly Report – 28 Oct 2024
Please find attached the month-end Rand report where we examine the local currency against the major global counterparts.
JSE Top 40 Note – 22 Oct 2024
The JSE TOPI Index update.
Rand Weekly Report – 21 Oct 2024
The USD/ZAR medium- and short- term expectations remain in line with recent market moves.
We expect volatile range trading within medium term parameters for the rest of the year.
The occurrence of a rare running correction with extended bullish consequences remains possible,
but is not the preferred outcome. We will keep a close watch as price action develops and clarifies the situation over time.
JSE Top 40 Index Note – 15 Oct 2024
An overlapping longer term bull phase suggests ongoing volatile moves with an upside bias over time.
The medium term view of moderate further gains remains valid.
Rand Weekly Report – 14 Oct 2024
Medium term moves have remained within long term consolidation parameters and have also consistently exhibited corrective traits.
This suggests that while the USD/ZAR pair should remain within stated parameters.
Volatility and ad hoc moves is likely to continue for the rest of 2024.
JSE TOP 40 Index Weekly Note – 07 Oct 2024
The maturing bull trend could have moderate further shorter -term upside potential.
Despite the short-term bullish bias, it is increasingly difficult to see a medium- term extended bullish scenario from current market levels.
Recent formations and price action suggest volatile and overlapping moves over the foreseeable future.
USD/ZAR Weekly Report – 07 Oct 2024
For the technicians and perma- Rand bears we have added a short term second alternative outcome analysis.
This is a rare formation with a low probability of materializing. A breach of 17.35 will negate this outcome
JSE TOP 40 Index- The long term Outlook – 01 Oct 2024
A fair amount of detail outlining the general bull trend as an upward sloping wedge increases the risk of being wrong.
Recent medium term price action unfortunately points to this alternative as the preferred outcome.
It is not in line with the prevailing sentiment and our personal fundamental stance.
JSE TOP 40 Index Update – 25 Sep 2024
The recent gains have been everything but a classic trending bull market.
Overlapping and volatile gains can be defined by a price channel.
Whilst this type of price action is common in corrections and consolidations, it is quite rare during general upside and making new highs.
The most plausible alternative/explanation for his is that a large and long term upward sloping wedge is forming.
The illustrated scenarios are self- explanatory.
USD/ZAR Report – 23 Sep 2024
The market is currently testing our long held bearish target levels. A bottom has, however not been formed or confirmed yet.
In this report we discuss feasible short term alternative outcomes that could materialize,
given current extended market conditions, importance of cluster support, as well as the prevailing bullish sentiment and conviction.