Medium- and short-term price action point to messy range trading into the end of the year.
The Expected bull trend to new highs might then only materialize in 2025.
South African Markets
Rand Weekly Report – 25 Nov 2025
Note : As per usual this week will be the final reporting schedule for 2024.
While the recent bullish view and important target levels are retained,
Non classical short term market action and subdivisions in the move from 17.29 to current levels continues.
The preferred and illustrated interim outcome is therefore subject to a measure of short-term uncertainty.
JSE TOP 40 report – 20 Nov 2024
Please find attached the JSE TOP 40 index update
Rand Weekly Report – 14 Oct 2024
Medium term moves have remained within long term consolidation parameters and have also consistently exhibited corrective traits.
This suggests that while the USD/ZAR pair should remain within stated parameters.
Volatility and ad hoc moves is likely to continue for the rest of 2024.
JSE TOP 40 Index Weekly Note – 07 Oct 2024
The maturing bull trend could have moderate further shorter -term upside potential.
Despite the short-term bullish bias, it is increasingly difficult to see a medium- term extended bullish scenario from current market levels.
Recent formations and price action suggest volatile and overlapping moves over the foreseeable future.
USD/ZAR Weekly Report – 07 Oct 2024
For the technicians and perma- Rand bears we have added a short term second alternative outcome analysis.
This is a rare formation with a low probability of materializing. A breach of 17.35 will negate this outcome
JSE TOP 40 Index- The long term Outlook – 01 Oct 2024
A fair amount of detail outlining the general bull trend as an upward sloping wedge increases the risk of being wrong.
Recent medium term price action unfortunately points to this alternative as the preferred outcome.
It is not in line with the prevailing sentiment and our personal fundamental stance.
JSE TOP 40 Index Update – 25 Sep 2024
The recent gains have been everything but a classic trending bull market.
Overlapping and volatile gains can be defined by a price channel.
Whilst this type of price action is common in corrections and consolidations, it is quite rare during general upside and making new highs.
The most plausible alternative/explanation for his is that a large and long term upward sloping wedge is forming.
The illustrated scenarios are self- explanatory.
USD/ZAR Report – 23 Sep 2024
The market is currently testing our long held bearish target levels. A bottom has, however not been formed or confirmed yet.
In this report we discuss feasible short term alternative outcomes that could materialize,
given current extended market conditions, importance of cluster support, as well as the prevailing bullish sentiment and conviction.
JSE TOP 40 Index Note – 16 Sep 2024
Global equity rhetoric and sentiment has recently become quite positive , due to several fundamental factors.
The technical scenario is in line with any immediate bullish bias, but the longer-term outlook remains more circumspect and even negative.
Our mandate is to give an objective technical perspective on analysed markets, independent of any other forecasting techniques.
Re- assessment and negation levels fortunately qualify the technical view and is, as always, important.
Rand Weekly Report – 16 Sep 2024
The technical bearish stance is materializing and remains valid.
There are two alternative outcomes once the initial target area has been reached.
In this report we discuss both the preferred (less bearish) and alternative viewpoints.
JSE Resources 10 Index note – 12 Sep 2024
Resource stocks are due a decent rebound from oversold and unloved conditions.
Whilst this might not yet be the end of the recent sharp bear trend, the longer-term outlook is that of maturing downside.
There is a glimmer of light at the end of the long term tunnel.
JSE TOP 40 Note – 09 Sep 2024
The medium-term bearish outcome defies belief but is unfortunately the best objective technical outcome.
The bear trend is currently still unconfirmed and as such just a good idea, until pivotal support has been broken.
Pivotal and negation levels remain important for successful navigation of the market.
USD/ZAR Weekly – 09 Sep 2024
The expected consolidation phase in the USD/ZAR pair is open to some interpretation.
While the shorter- term outcome is similar in nature between the two feasible alternatives, the long- term consequences and trend implications are different.
As always, developing price action will give us early insight into outcome probabilities.
JSE Top 40 Weekly Note – 04 Sep 2024
The weekly JSE Top 40 Index update.