JSE Top 40

The recent gains have been everything but a classic trending bull market.

Overlapping and volatile gains can be defined by a price channel.

Whilst this type of price action is common in corrections and consolidations, it is quite rare during general upside and making new highs.

The most plausible alternative/explanation for his is that a large and long term upward sloping wedge is forming.

The illustrated scenarios are self- explanatory.

Global equity rhetoric and sentiment has recently become quite positive , due to several fundamental factors.

The technical scenario is in line with any immediate bullish bias, but the longer-term outlook remains more circumspect and even negative.

Our mandate is to give an objective technical perspective on analysed markets, independent of any other forecasting techniques.

Re- assessment and negation levels fortunately qualify the technical view and is, as always, important.

The medium-term bearish outcome defies belief but is unfortunately the best objective technical outcome.

The bear trend is currently still unconfirmed and as such just a good idea, until pivotal support has been broken.

Pivotal and negation levels remain important for successful navigation of the market.

The weekly JSE Top 40 Index update.

While our medium-term bullish stance for 2024 has materialized, the recent break of previous tops suggests the possibility of extended gains beyond the long-held target levels.

Unfortunately, the break has come under overbought and diverging market conditions. The bullish advance over the past year has also been more corrective than trending.

The formation/ trend is therefore quite difficult to pinpoint with conviction.

There is a lot that we are uncertain about, so let us try and simplify it to what we do know:

Price action is the primary indicator. As long as we remain above the crucial pivot support the bias should remain bullish.
A price break below this same level would, however, be quite bearish and volatile.

“ The trend is your friend- except in the end when it bends”

A short update on the JSE TOP 40 index.

The market has reached and breached our immediate bullish target levels.

This results in an adjustment to the view for an extended bull phase to higher target levels.

The market is unfortunately over- extended, giving any bullish bias a high risk factor.

The weekly JSE Top 40 index update.

The medium- term view of a bearish corrective phase is confirmed by volatile and overlapping price action.

Longer term investors should remain calm with a definite re- emergence of the cyclical bull trend outcome on the other side of this volatile mess.

Traders and speculators can capitalize on the interim expected trends that should occur.

The important activation and negation market levels are even more crucial in volatile corrections, as highlighted in the report.

Please find attached the weekly JSE Top 40 Index update.

Please find attached the JSE Top 40 benchmark index update.

Note: There are unfortunately several feasible medium-term outcomes.

The illustrated scenarios are preferred.

Please find attached the weekly JSE Top 40 index technical analysis update

Note: The medium-term view has been adjusted to a more bearish bias, resulting from increasingly overlapping gains.