Medium- and short-term price action point to messy range trading into the end of the year.
The Expected bull trend to new highs might then only materialize in 2025.
JSE Top 40
JSE TOP 40 report – 20 Nov 2024
Please find attached the JSE TOP 40 index update
JSE TOP 40 Note – 12 Nov 2024
Please find attached the weekly JSE TOPI Index update.
JSE TOP 40 Index Note – 04 Nov 2024
The expected and current market consolidation seems to be forming a bullish continuation pattern.
This phase is most probably building a base for further gains, as part of the larger bull trend.
JSE TOP 40 Index: The Bigger Picture – 29 Oct 2024
Please find attached the monthly, long term JSE TOP 40 index update.
JSE Top 40 Note – 22 Oct 2024
The JSE TOPI Index update.
JSE Top 40 Index Note – 15 Oct 2024
An overlapping longer term bull phase suggests ongoing volatile moves with an upside bias over time.
The medium term view of moderate further gains remains valid.
JSE TOP 40 Index Weekly Note – 07 Oct 2024
The maturing bull trend could have moderate further shorter -term upside potential.
Despite the short-term bullish bias, it is increasingly difficult to see a medium- term extended bullish scenario from current market levels.
Recent formations and price action suggest volatile and overlapping moves over the foreseeable future.
JSE TOP 40 Index- The long term Outlook – 01 Oct 2024
A fair amount of detail outlining the general bull trend as an upward sloping wedge increases the risk of being wrong.
Recent medium term price action unfortunately points to this alternative as the preferred outcome.
It is not in line with the prevailing sentiment and our personal fundamental stance.
JSE TOP 40 Index Update – 25 Sep 2024
The recent gains have been everything but a classic trending bull market.
Overlapping and volatile gains can be defined by a price channel.
Whilst this type of price action is common in corrections and consolidations, it is quite rare during general upside and making new highs.
The most plausible alternative/explanation for his is that a large and long term upward sloping wedge is forming.
The illustrated scenarios are self- explanatory.
JSE TOP 40 Index Note – 16 Sep 2024
Global equity rhetoric and sentiment has recently become quite positive , due to several fundamental factors.
The technical scenario is in line with any immediate bullish bias, but the longer-term outlook remains more circumspect and even negative.
Our mandate is to give an objective technical perspective on analysed markets, independent of any other forecasting techniques.
Re- assessment and negation levels fortunately qualify the technical view and is, as always, important.
JSE TOP 40 Note – 09 Sep 2024
The medium-term bearish outcome defies belief but is unfortunately the best objective technical outcome.
The bear trend is currently still unconfirmed and as such just a good idea, until pivotal support has been broken.
Pivotal and negation levels remain important for successful navigation of the market.
JSE Top 40 Weekly Note – 04 Sep 2024
The weekly JSE Top 40 Index update.
JSE Top 40 note – 28 Aug 2024
While our medium-term bullish stance for 2024 has materialized, the recent break of previous tops suggests the possibility of extended gains beyond the long-held target levels.
Unfortunately, the break has come under overbought and diverging market conditions. The bullish advance over the past year has also been more corrective than trending.
The formation/ trend is therefore quite difficult to pinpoint with conviction.
There is a lot that we are uncertain about, so let us try and simplify it to what we do know:
Price action is the primary indicator. As long as we remain above the crucial pivot support the bias should remain bullish.
A price break below this same level would, however, be quite bearish and volatile.
“ The trend is your friend- except in the end when it bends”
JSE TOP40 Interim Note – 21 Aug 2024
A short update on the JSE TOP 40 index.
The market has reached and breached our immediate bullish target levels.
This results in an adjustment to the view for an extended bull phase to higher target levels.
The market is unfortunately over- extended, giving any bullish bias a high risk factor.