The general Crypto bull trend is approaching our target areas.
Current medium-term advances should complete the cyclical bull trend and be followed by a multi- month decline.
Ethereum is also experiencing a bull trend after a period of solid base building, but the long-term outlook on this market remains somewhat uncertain.
The expected bull trend could be maturing as it approaches important target areas.
While the recent bullish view and important target levels are retained, limited subdivisions in the move from 17.29 to current levels creates a measure of short-term uncertainty.
We will update the interim outlook as more price evidence avails itself.
US Dollar strength has exceeded our expectations and necessitated some adjustments to the medium- term outlook.
It seems that recent fundamental events have had a marked influence on the value of the Greenback.
Market behaviour and trends do not always abide by our expectations and analyses.
Besides being a lesson in humility, it also emphasizes the importance of pivotal technical levels as a disciplined investment approach.
The weekly JSE Top 40 Index update.
The US Dollar monthly report.
The long term monthly report on BTC and ETH.
The monthly technical analysis update on the Rand against USD, GBP and Euro.
The periodic Copper technical analysis update.
Disclaimer: This is a purely technical view and no fundamentals have been harmed in the process.
While our medium-term bullish stance for 2024 has materialized, the recent break of previous tops suggests the possibility of extended gains beyond the long-held target levels.
Unfortunately, the break has come under overbought and diverging market conditions. The bullish advance over the past year has also been more corrective than trending.
The formation/ trend is therefore quite difficult to pinpoint with conviction.
There is a lot that we are uncertain about, so let us try and simplify it to what we do know:
Price action is the primary indicator. As long as we remain above the crucial pivot support the bias should remain bullish.
A price break below this same level would, however, be quite bearish and volatile.
“ The trend is your friend- except in the end when it bends”
The short- term update has been changed from the US Index to the EUR/USD pair.
EUR/USD is the preferred global trading currency and requests for short term analysis is therefore well founded
The US Dollar has broken out of a medium-term range with an increasing likelihood of more trending price action going forward.
Current weakening of the US Currency has a direct impact on global currencies, as well as related financial markets
If our medium-term view of continued volatile range trading is correct, then the next few months can be difficult for both bulls and bears. Target and pivotal levels are crucial in a market where sentiment extremes might just be a contrarian indicator for the time being.
A break of the consolidation parameters is required to activate a large trend.
It is a painful truth that the longer-term technical stance remains quite bullish on the eventual completion of the current consolidation.
Our medium-term bearish outlook on USD/ZAR is approaching important target support.
Moderate further downside in this pair remains part of a multi- year consolidation and most probably not the beginning of a long -term bear trend.
Bearish US Dollar sentiment has become commonplace as the major driver behind global currency moves, including the Rand.
A short update on the JSE TOP 40 index.
The market has reached and breached our immediate bullish target levels.
This results in an adjustment to the view for an extended bull phase to higher target levels.
The market is unfortunately over- extended, giving any bullish bias a high risk factor.
A technical analysis note on Sasol, as requested by an All-In-One Member.
Many adages come to mind here, but the most apt is one I use from time to time:
“Sometimes we are not sure, and other times we just don’t know”
Current bearish sentiment on the US Dollar is potentially correct.
The luxury of being vaguely bullish or bearish does, however not quantify the more important issues of when and from where.
Technical analysis is an attempt to do just that.