USD/ZAR

The general outlook of Rand strength within larger consolidation patterns has materialized during September.

In the case of the USD/ZAR pair an extended bear phase had to be considered after the breach of initial targets, that is approaching the extended target area. The USD/ZAR move can largely be ascribed to recent USD weakness against most currencies.

The USD/ZAR and EUR/USD pairs have become extremely oversold and while there is short term room for further modest downside, the risk of bullish corrections is increasing.

The market is currently testing our long held bearish target levels. A bottom has, however not been formed or confirmed yet.

In this report we discuss feasible short term alternative outcomes that could materialize,

given current extended market conditions, importance of cluster support, as well as the prevailing bullish sentiment and conviction.

The technical bearish stance is materializing and remains valid.

There are two alternative outcomes once the initial target area has been reached.

In this report we discuss both the preferred (less bearish) and alternative viewpoints.

The expected consolidation phase in the USD/ZAR pair is open to some interpretation.

While the shorter- term outcome is similar in nature between the two feasible alternatives, the long- term consequences and trend implications are different.

As always, developing price action will give us early insight into outcome probabilities.

The monthly technical analysis update on the Rand against USD, GBP and Euro.

Our medium-term bearish outlook on USD/ZAR is approaching important target support.

Moderate further downside in this pair remains part of a multi- year consolidation and most probably not the beginning of a long -term bear trend.

Bearish US Dollar sentiment has become commonplace as the major driver behind global currency moves, including the Rand.

A well established, medium- term positive technical outlook on the Rand is now also becoming commonplace in the fundamental narrative. This could lead to further expected Rand appreciation.

As prevailing trend matures, we need to remain circumspect.

It is in a rattlesnakes’ nature to strike when least expected.

The weekly Rand technical analysis update.

Please find attached the weekly Rand technical analysis update.

Please find attached the monthly update of the medium-term outlook on the Rand against the major currencies.

There seems to be more interest in this report than the longer term Rand analysis.