Note : As per usual this week will be the final reporting schedule for 2024.
While the recent bullish view and important target levels are retained,
Non classical short term market action and subdivisions in the move from 17.29 to current levels continues.
The preferred and illustrated interim outcome is therefore subject to a measure of short-term uncertainty.
The expected bull trend could be maturing as it approaches important target areas.
While the recent bullish view and important target levels are retained, limited subdivisions in the move from 17.29 to current levels creates a measure of short-term uncertainty.
We will update the interim outlook as more price evidence avails itself.
Event risk has added a fair amount of volatility, but without a meaningful change in the prevailing view.
The interim Report of a possible down break through important support levels were put on hold after a sharp bullish reversal off the important support/ break levels.
Whereto from here: While volatility decreases certainty and creates doubt, it seems that the long held technical outcome remains preferred.
Please find the generally requested medium term update on the USD/ZAR pair.
Please find attached the weekly USD/ZAR report.
Please find attached the month-end Rand report where we examine the local currency against the major global counterparts.
The USD/ZAR medium- and short- term expectations remain in line with recent market moves.
We expect volatile range trading within medium term parameters for the rest of the year.
The occurrence of a rare running correction with extended bullish consequences remains possible,
but is not the preferred outcome. We will keep a close watch as price action develops and clarifies the situation over time.
Medium term moves have remained within long term consolidation parameters and have also consistently exhibited corrective traits.
This suggests that while the USD/ZAR pair should remain within stated parameters.
Volatility and ad hoc moves is likely to continue for the rest of 2024.
For the technicians and perma- Rand bears we have added a short term second alternative outcome analysis.
This is a rare formation with a low probability of materializing. A breach of 17.35 will negate this outcome
The general outlook of Rand strength within larger consolidation patterns has materialized during September.
In the case of the USD/ZAR pair an extended bear phase had to be considered after the breach of initial targets, that is approaching the extended target area. The USD/ZAR move can largely be ascribed to recent USD weakness against most currencies.
The USD/ZAR and EUR/USD pairs have become extremely oversold and while there is short term room for further modest downside, the risk of bullish corrections is increasing.
The market is currently testing our long held bearish target levels. A bottom has, however not been formed or confirmed yet.
In this report we discuss feasible short term alternative outcomes that could materialize,
given current extended market conditions, importance of cluster support, as well as the prevailing bullish sentiment and conviction.
The technical bearish stance is materializing and remains valid.
There are two alternative outcomes once the initial target area has been reached.
In this report we discuss both the preferred (less bearish) and alternative viewpoints.
The expected consolidation phase in the USD/ZAR pair is open to some interpretation.
While the shorter- term outcome is similar in nature between the two feasible alternatives, the long- term consequences and trend implications are different.
As always, developing price action will give us early insight into outcome probabilities.
The monthly technical analysis update on the Rand against USD, GBP and Euro.
Our medium-term bearish outlook on USD/ZAR is approaching important target support.
Moderate further downside in this pair remains part of a multi- year consolidation and most probably not the beginning of a long -term bear trend.
Bearish US Dollar sentiment has become commonplace as the major driver behind global currency moves, including the Rand.