US Dollar strength has exceeded our expectations and necessitated some adjustments to the medium- term outlook.
It seems that recent fundamental events have had a marked influence on the value of the Greenback.
Market behaviour and trends do not always abide by our expectations and analyses.
Besides being a lesson in humility, it also emphasizes the importance of pivotal technical levels as a disciplined investment approach.
The longer- term bearish outlook on the US currency remains valid.
Further medium - term range trading is preceding the eventual bear trend.
We “ await” US presidential election and then “await” the FOMC meeting.
Then we will “digest” the results before “awaiting” the next important economic figures….
Our longer- term bearish stance on the Greenback remains valid and is ongoing.
Recent gains have, however indicated that the 18-month-old consolidation phase remains in force, effectively postponing the larger bearish potential.
The long-term monthly analysis confirms the respective weekly views.
The US presidential election and upcoming FOMC meeting could result in volatility, but this report does not take any fundamental drivers in consideration as a purely technical outlook.
Users can overlay and include their own perceptions and analyses.
Please find attached the month-end, bigger picture outlook on the US Dollar.
Please find attached the weekly US Dollar report.
The medium to long term consolidation phase is maturing. A meaningful trend should occur later in 2024.
Please find attached the monthly, longer- term update on the US Dollar.
Note: A crucial human bias when analysing markets is the inability to discern that markets have periods of bullish and bearish outcomes over various time frames.
Our fundamental narrative and views can sometimes ignore this reality.
While technical analysis is not always correct, it does portray a more representative long-term and nuanced approach.
The weekly US Dollar technical analysis update.
Note: Minor adjustments to the short term view has been made.
The monthly outlook on the cryptocurrency market.
Note: We are repeating the month- end, longer term report from last week.
The daily and short -term analysis adds little value during a runaway trend with little subdivisions, while the bigger picture does give some insights.
PS- Our fundamental views on these markets has been completely wrong (up to now). Thankful for trend following technical analysis.
The weekly US Dollar technical analysis update.
The monthend overview on the US Dollar.
The weekly US Dollar technical analysis update.
The weekly US Dollar technical analysis update.
The weekly US Dollar technical analysis update.