USD Index

Our longer- term bearish stance on the Greenback remains valid and is ongoing.

Recent gains have, however indicated that the 18-month-old consolidation phase remains in force, effectively postponing the larger bearish potential.

The long-term monthly analysis confirms the respective weekly views.

The US presidential election and upcoming FOMC meeting could result in volatility, but this report does not take any fundamental drivers in consideration as a purely technical outlook.

Users can overlay and include their own perceptions and analyses.

While the longer- term bearish outlook on the US currency remains valid, medium- and short-term outcomes were adjusted since last week’s report.

The alternative outcome of consolidating market action was validated by extended short term appreciation beyond pivotal levels.

Further medium – term range trading has postponed the still relevant and eventual bear trend to new lows.

The US Dollar Report for the 16th of October 2024.

Our medium to longer term bearish stance on the Greenback is ongoing.

Further weakening is expected to reach our long-held target levels.

This is unlikely to be the move that perma- bears expect to “ dethrone the US Dollar” . It is more likely a bearish correction in a cyclical bull trend.

The general US Dollar bearish trend remains intact and the most probable medium term technical outcome.

The general bearish stance on USD seems to be materializing.

Important fundamental announcements and data might create a measure of volatility.

The US Currency impacts global financial markets, and it remains imperative for investors and traders to have an outlook on trend potential

The US Dollar, as the de- facto reserve currency of the world, is central to global finances, economic growth, and markets.

It is therefore a given that a continuous bombardment of fundamental, political, and macro- economic views and opinions abound.

This ranges from the extremely bullish “King Dollar” protagonists to the “ultimate demise” of the Greenback and imminent replacement by cryptocurrencies.

The news flow in this regard is at best confusing.

Technical analysis is helpful in simplifying the complexity to “what” can transpire, instead of “why” it could happen.

Our general bearish outlook on the US Dollar is based on market action. It is a probability study and there are always re- assessment levels where the outlook is adjusted or changed.

The US Dollar monthly report.

The short- term update has been changed from the US Index to the EUR/USD pair.

EUR/USD is the preferred global trading currency and requests for short term analysis is therefore well founded

The US Dollar has broken out of a medium-term range with an increasing likelihood of more trending price action going forward.

Current weakening of the US Currency has a direct impact on global currencies, as well as related financial markets

Current bearish sentiment on the US Dollar is potentially correct.

The luxury of being vaguely bullish or bearish does, however not quantify the more important issues of when and from where.

Technical analysis is an attempt to do just that.