Currencies

The expected consolidation phase in the USD/ZAR pair is open to some interpretation.

While the shorter- term outcome is similar in nature between the two feasible alternatives, the long- term consequences and trend implications are different.

As always, developing price action will give us early insight into outcome probabilities.

The US Dollar monthly report.

The long term monthly report on BTC and ETH.

The monthly technical analysis update on the Rand against USD, GBP and Euro.

The short- term update has been changed from the US Index to the EUR/USD pair.

EUR/USD is the preferred global trading currency and requests for short term analysis is therefore well founded

The US Dollar has broken out of a medium-term range with an increasing likelihood of more trending price action going forward.

Current weakening of the US Currency has a direct impact on global currencies, as well as related financial markets

If our medium-term view of continued volatile range trading is correct, then the next few months can be difficult for both bulls and bears. Target and pivotal levels are crucial in a market where sentiment extremes might just be a contrarian indicator for the time being.

A break of the consolidation parameters is required to activate a large trend.

It is a painful truth that the longer-term technical stance remains quite bullish on the eventual completion of the current consolidation.

Our medium-term bearish outlook on USD/ZAR is approaching important target support.

Moderate further downside in this pair remains part of a multi- year consolidation and most probably not the beginning of a long -term bear trend.

Bearish US Dollar sentiment has become commonplace as the major driver behind global currency moves, including the Rand.

Current bearish sentiment on the US Dollar is potentially correct.

The luxury of being vaguely bullish or bearish does, however not quantify the more important issues of when and from where.

Technical analysis is an attempt to do just that.

The market is currently undergoing a correction phase which is expected to lead to a bullish reversal.

The bullish trend is anticipated to reach T1/T2 levels.

The current price action is part of a larger corrective pattern, but there’s room for other formations to occur.

The K** level is crucial for the overall market outlook.

A well established, medium- term positive technical outlook on the Rand is now also becoming commonplace in the fundamental narrative. This could lead to further expected Rand appreciation.

As prevailing trend matures, we need to remain circumspect.

It is in a rattlesnakes’ nature to strike when least expected.