Note : As per usual this week will be the final reporting schedule for 2024.
While the recent bullish view and important target levels are retained,
Non classical short term market action and subdivisions in the move from 17.29 to current levels continues.
The preferred and illustrated interim outcome is therefore subject to a measure of short-term uncertainty.
The current US Dollar bull trend is approaching respective medium-term targets against most currencies.
There is a likelihood of a trend reversal, or at the very least a meaningful correction of current Dollar strength.
The general Crypto bull trend is approaching our target areas.
Current medium-term advances should complete the cyclical bull trend and be followed by a multi- month decline.
Ethereum is also experiencing a bull trend after a period of solid base building, but the long-term outlook on this market remains somewhat uncertain.
The general outlook of Rand strength within larger consolidation patterns has materialized during September.
In the case of the USD/ZAR pair an extended bear phase had to be considered after the breach of initial targets, that is approaching the extended target area. The USD/ZAR move can largely be ascribed to recent USD weakness against most currencies.
The USD/ZAR and EUR/USD pairs have become extremely oversold and while there is short term room for further modest downside, the risk of bullish corrections is increasing.
The general US Dollar bearish trend remains intact and the most probable medium term technical outcome.
The general consolidation in BTC continues in line with expectations and should have an eventual bullish outcome to new highs.
ETH have completed the bear trend. Our medium- term bullish outlook is materializing after a prolonged negative stance. The recent break of pivotal levels has confirmed the illustrated outlook.
Current market action allows for a fair amount of detail to be included in the views. The goal is to portray a complete and comprehensive view. It is, however, unlikely to depict the exact outcome.
The market is currently testing our long held bearish target levels. A bottom has, however not been formed or confirmed yet.
In this report we discuss feasible short term alternative outcomes that could materialize,
given current extended market conditions, importance of cluster support, as well as the prevailing bullish sentiment and conviction.
The general consolidation in BTC continues in line with expectations and should have an eventual bullish outcome to new highs.
ETH have either completed or are in the process of completing the large bear trend. Our medium- term view is turning cautiously bullish after a prolonged negative stance.
While ETH has recently shown bullish reversal potential off target support, a break of the important pivot level that will confirm medium term gains has still not transpired.
Growing disparity between BTC and ETH outcomes has been a medium-term process and is expected to continue.
The general bearish stance on USD seems to be materializing.
Important fundamental announcements and data might create a measure of volatility.
The US Currency impacts global financial markets, and it remains imperative for investors and traders to have an outlook on trend potential
The technical bearish stance is materializing and remains valid.
There are two alternative outcomes once the initial target area has been reached.
In this report we discuss both the preferred (less bearish) and alternative viewpoints.
The general consolidation in BTC is ongoing and should have an eventual bullish outcome.
ETH seems to have either completed or are in the process of completing the large bear trend.
Our medium- term view is turning cautiously bullish after a prolonged negative stance.
The technical outlook remains in stark contrast to our (somewhat irrelevant) fundamental outlook.
This analysis goes into a fair amount of detail.
It is not always the case and is largely driven by confirmation of the view in eliminating alternative outcome, allowing detail to be added to a report.
The US Dollar, as the de- facto reserve currency of the world, is central to global finances, economic growth, and markets.
It is therefore a given that a continuous bombardment of fundamental, political, and macro- economic views and opinions abound.
This ranges from the extremely bullish “King Dollar” protagonists to the “ultimate demise” of the Greenback and imminent replacement by cryptocurrencies.
The news flow in this regard is at best confusing.
Technical analysis is helpful in simplifying the complexity to “what” can transpire, instead of “why” it could happen.
Our general bearish outlook on the US Dollar is based on market action. It is a probability study and there are always re- assessment levels where the outlook is adjusted or changed.
The expected consolidation phase in the USD/ZAR pair is open to some interpretation.
While the shorter- term outcome is similar in nature between the two feasible alternatives, the long- term consequences and trend implications are different.
As always, developing price action will give us early insight into outcome probabilities.
The US Dollar monthly report.
The long term monthly report on BTC and ETH.