Currencies

Please find attached the monthly USD Dollar technical analysis report.

It is against current sentiment to expect medium term US Dollar weakness, as well as against our personal fundamental outlook.

The outlook is the best probable technical outcome.

Please find attached the EUR/USD technical analysis update.

In this report we use various time horizons to confirm and establish long and short- term views.

The analysis is based on the long-term outlook and subsequent shorter time horizons should remain in line and confirm one another.

The resulting view of bullish potential for EUR/USD is counter intuitive and against the prevailing sentiment.

Please find attached the longer- term outlook on Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Our general bullish views and biases over the past 2 years have largely materialized.

The technical outlook suggests a more difficult year with meaningful bear phase potential and volatility to both the upside and downside.

A cautious approach is recommended.

In line with our 2025 preview we take a look at where the money can be made and returns generated.

A largely unexpected bull trend in Eur/USD can catch the market unawares.

Dollar strength is testing both medium- and short-term target levels.

The probability of further meaningful gains from a technical analysis perspective is low, with extended market conditions at important levels.

While the view is for a bearish reversal and meaningful downside, this view will only be confirmed on breaching of stated pivots.

“Technical analysis is a probability study on future market action”

The long held bullish view on cryptocurrencies have largely materialized towards relevant target levels.

It is always possible that the market can extend, but we assess that the risk of a bearish reversal has now become higher than further extensions of the bull trend.

“Markets can stay irrational longer than we can stay solvent”

Note : As per usual this week will be the final reporting schedule for 2024.

While the recent bullish view and important target levels are retained,

Non classical short term market action and subdivisions in the move from 17.29 to current levels continues.

The preferred and illustrated interim outcome is therefore subject to a measure of short-term uncertainty.

The current US Dollar bull trend is approaching respective medium-term targets against most currencies.

There is a likelihood of a trend reversal, or at the very least a meaningful correction of current Dollar strength.

The general Crypto bull trend is approaching our target areas.

Current medium-term advances should complete the cyclical bull trend and be followed by a multi- month decline.

Ethereum is also experiencing a bull trend after a period of solid base building, but the long-term outlook on this market remains somewhat uncertain.

The expected bull trend could be maturing as it approaches important target areas.

While the recent bullish view and important target levels are retained, limited subdivisions in the move from 17.29 to current levels creates a measure of short-term uncertainty.

We will update the interim outlook as more price evidence avails itself.