EUR/USD

The US Dollar, as the de- facto reserve currency of the world, is central to global finances, economic growth, and markets.

It is therefore a given that a continuous bombardment of fundamental, political, and macro- economic views and opinions abound.

This ranges from the extremely bullish “King Dollar” protagonists to the “ultimate demise” of the Greenback and imminent replacement by cryptocurrencies.

The news flow in this regard is at best confusing.

Technical analysis is helpful in simplifying the complexity to “what” can transpire, instead of “why” it could happen.

Our general bearish outlook on the US Dollar is based on market action. It is a probability study and there are always re- assessment levels where the outlook is adjusted or changed.

The US Dollar monthly report.

The short- term update has been changed from the US Index to the EUR/USD pair.

EUR/USD is the preferred global trading currency and requests for short term analysis is therefore well founded

The US Dollar has broken out of a medium-term range with an increasing likelihood of more trending price action going forward.

Current weakening of the US Currency has a direct impact on global currencies, as well as related financial markets

Current bearish sentiment on the US Dollar is potentially correct.

The luxury of being vaguely bullish or bearish does, however not quantify the more important issues of when and from where.

Technical analysis is an attempt to do just that.

The relatively stable outlook on US Dollar over the past 2 years is fast maturing.

Definitive and meaningful trends are expected to develop within the next few months and have knock on effects for global markets.

Trends are where exceptional returns are made and lost.

Please find attached the weekly US Dollar update.

Please find attached the month-end, bigger picture outlook on the US Dollar.

Please find attached the weekly US Dollar report.

The medium to long term consolidation phase is maturing. A meaningful trend should occur later in 2024.