Cryptocurrencies

The medium-term bullish outlook on Bitcoin could be materializing as the market breaks above initial key resistance.

Interim overbought conditions are likely to result in a corrective phase, but this would remain part of the larger bullish bias, if pivotal support holds.

The expected bull trend should complete the cyclical upside that started at circa $ 16 000.

Ethereum remains less certain. The general view of a medium-term bottom, however, seems to be materializing.

The medium-term bullish outlook on Bitcoin should be close to materializing as the recent consolidation phase nears completion.

The expected bull trend should complete the cyclical upside that started at circa $ 16 000.

This view is despite our well documented fundamental scepticism.

Ethereum remains somewhat of an enigma. It does seem, however that the market is constructing a medium-term bottom

that could result in a meaningful bull phase/relief rally.

The general bearish stance on the US Dollar remains preferred.

An expected correction in the bear trend has, however exceeded the indicated target levels.

This counter trend strength requires us to suggest a viable alternative possibility for a return to the largely ranging market conditions before the recent bearish break out.

Fortunately pivotal activation levels are quite close to current market levels.

The general consolidation in BTC is fast maturing and should result in a bullish outcome to new highs.

ETH remains difficult to pinpoint. Our medium- term bullish outlook was neutralized after a failure to reach new highs.

The best alternative is for this market to continue with an extended and overlapping bottoming formation.

The cryptocurrency market has evolved from a highly correlated entity to the current situation where the various currencies exhibit unique trends and outcomes.

The stark divergence between ETH and BTC outcomes over time has been notable.

Bitcoin and Ethereum technical pictures continue to diverge.

While BTC is consolidating as part of a cyclical bull trend, the long-term outlook for ETH remains more muted with volatile moves within a wide trading range.

The goal of long-term analyses is to give a visual representation of trend potential.

It is not intended as a trading or timing input but does confirm the medium- and shorter-term views.

It is also a useful input onto strategic decision making.

The general consolidation in BTC continues in line with expectations and should have an eventual bullish outcome to new highs.

ETH have completed the bear trend. Our medium- term bullish outlook is materializing after a prolonged negative stance. The recent break of pivotal levels has confirmed the illustrated outlook.

Current market action allows for a fair amount of detail to be included in the views. The goal is to portray a complete and comprehensive view. It is, however, unlikely to depict the exact outcome.

The general consolidation in BTC continues in line with expectations and should have an eventual bullish outcome to new highs.

ETH have either completed or are in the process of completing the large bear trend. Our medium- term view is turning cautiously bullish after a prolonged negative stance.

While ETH has recently shown bullish reversal potential off target support, a break of the important pivot level that will confirm medium term gains has still not transpired.

Growing disparity between BTC and ETH outcomes has been a medium-term process and is expected to continue.

The general consolidation in BTC is ongoing and should have an eventual bullish outcome.

ETH seems to have either completed or are in the process of completing the large bear trend.

Our medium- term view is turning cautiously bullish after a prolonged negative stance.

The technical outlook remains in stark contrast to our (somewhat irrelevant) fundamental outlook.

This analysis goes into a fair amount of detail.

It is not always the case and is largely driven by confirmation of the view in eliminating alternative outcome, allowing detail to be added to a report.

The long term monthly report on BTC and ETH.

If our medium-term view of continued volatile range trading is correct, then the next few months can be difficult for both bulls and bears. Target and pivotal levels are crucial in a market where sentiment extremes might just be a contrarian indicator for the time being.

A break of the consolidation parameters is required to activate a large trend.

It is a painful truth that the longer-term technical stance remains quite bullish on the eventual completion of the current consolidation.