Dollar strength is testing both medium- and short-term target levels.
The probability of further meaningful gains from a technical analysis perspective is low, with extended market conditions at important levels.
While the view is for a bearish reversal and meaningful downside, this view will only be confirmed on breaching of stated pivots.
“Technical analysis is a probability study on future market action”
The long held bullish view on cryptocurrencies have largely materialized towards relevant target levels.
It is always possible that the market can extend, but we assess that the risk of a bearish reversal has now become higher than further extensions of the bull trend.
“Markets can stay irrational longer than we can stay solvent”
Note : As per usual this week will be the final reporting schedule for 2024.
While the recent bullish view and important target levels are retained,
Non classical short term market action and subdivisions in the move from 17.29 to current levels continues.
The preferred and illustrated interim outcome is therefore subject to a measure of short-term uncertainty.
The current US Dollar bull trend is approaching respective medium-term targets against most currencies.
There is a likelihood of a trend reversal, or at the very least a meaningful correction of current Dollar strength.
The general Crypto bull trend is approaching our target areas.
Current medium-term advances should complete the cyclical bull trend and be followed by a multi- month decline.
Ethereum is also experiencing a bull trend after a period of solid base building, but the long-term outlook on this market remains somewhat uncertain.
The expected bull trend could be maturing as it approaches important target areas.
While the recent bullish view and important target levels are retained, limited subdivisions in the move from 17.29 to current levels creates a measure of short-term uncertainty.
We will update the interim outlook as more price evidence avails itself.
US Dollar strength has exceeded our expectations and necessitated some adjustments to the medium- term outlook.
It seems that recent fundamental events have had a marked influence on the value of the Greenback.
Market behaviour and trends do not always abide by our expectations and analyses.
Besides being a lesson in humility, it also emphasizes the importance of pivotal technical levels as a disciplined investment approach.
The Bitcoin bull trend is in full swing towards the stated target levels.
Interim corrections and consolidation periods are natural occurrences during an impulsive bull trend.
Current medium-term advances should complete the cyclical bull trend and be followed by a multi month decline.
Ethereum is also experiencing a bull trend after a period of solid base building.
The long term outlook on this market remains somewhat uncertain
Event risk has added a fair amount of volatility, but without a meaningful change in the prevailing view.
The interim Report of a possible down break through important support levels were put on hold after a sharp bullish reversal off the important support/ break levels.
Whereto from here: While volatility decreases certainty and creates doubt, it seems that the long held technical outcome remains preferred.
Please find the generally requested medium term update on the USD/ZAR pair.
The expected bull trend on Bitcoin is materializing after a meaningful break out of the consolidation parameters.
Ethereum’s technical outlook remains elusive with a variety of potential medium-term possibilities. We retain the preferred view of base building for an eventual meaningful bull trend.
It seems like the market has decided on its choice for the preferred cryptocurrency, whether we agree with it, or not.
The longer- term bearish outlook on the US currency remains valid.
Further medium - term range trading is preceding the eventual bear trend.
We “ await” US presidential election and then “await” the FOMC meeting.
Then we will “digest” the results before “awaiting” the next important economic figures….
Please find attached the weekly USD/ZAR report.
Our longer- term bearish stance on the Greenback remains valid and is ongoing.
Recent gains have, however indicated that the 18-month-old consolidation phase remains in force, effectively postponing the larger bearish potential.
The long-term monthly analysis confirms the respective weekly views.
The US presidential election and upcoming FOMC meeting could result in volatility, but this report does not take any fundamental drivers in consideration as a purely technical outlook.
Users can overlay and include their own perceptions and analyses.
Bitcoin and Ethereum’s technical pictures continue to diverge.
While BTC is consolidating as part of a cyclical bull trend, the long-term outlook for ETH remains more muted with volatile moves within a wide triangular trading range.
The main goal of long-term analysis is to portray possible large trends as the primary driver of returns and profits.
It is not a trading or timing input but can be used confirm the medium- and shorter-term views.