US Dollar Weekly Report – 10 Sep 2024
The US Dollar, as the de- facto reserve currency of the world, is central to global finances, economic growth, and markets.
It is therefore a given that a continuous bombardment of fundamental, political, and macro- economic views and opinions abound.
This ranges from the extremely bullish “King Dollar” protagonists to the “ultimate demise” of the Greenback and imminent replacement by cryptocurrencies.
The news flow in this regard is at best confusing.
Technical analysis is helpful in simplifying the complexity to “what” can transpire, instead of “why” it could happen.
Our general bearish outlook on the US Dollar is based on market action. It is a probability study and there are always re- assessment levels where the outlook is adjusted or changed.
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JSE TOP 40 Note – 09 Sep 2024
The medium-term bearish outcome defies belief but is unfortunately the best objective technical outcome.
The bear trend is currently still unconfirmed and as such just a good idea, until pivotal support has been broken.
Pivotal and negation levels remain important for successful navigation of the market.
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USD/ZAR Weekly – 09 Sep 2024
The expected consolidation phase in the USD/ZAR pair is open to some interpretation.
While the shorter- term outcome is similar in nature between the two feasible alternatives, the long- term consequences and trend implications are different.
As always, developing price action will give us early insight into outcome probabilities.
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JSE Top 40 Weekly Note – 04 Sep 2024
The weekly JSE Top 40 Index update.
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US Dollar- The Bigger Picture – 03 Sep 2024
The US Dollar monthly report.
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Cryptocurrencies Monthly Report – 02 Sep 2024
The long term monthly report on BTC and ETH.
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Rand vs the Major currencies – 02 Sept 2024
The monthly technical analysis update on the Rand against USD, GBP and Euro.
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Monthly Copper Report – August 2024
The periodic Copper technical analysis update.
Disclaimer: This is a purely technical view and no fundamentals have been harmed in the process.
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JSE Top 40 note – 28 Aug 2024
While our medium-term bullish stance for 2024 has materialized, the recent break of previous tops suggests the possibility of extended gains beyond the long-held target levels.
Unfortunately, the break has come under overbought and diverging market conditions. The bullish advance over the past year has also been more corrective than trending.
The formation/ trend is therefore quite difficult to pinpoint with conviction.
There is a lot that we are uncertain about, so let us try and simplify it to what we do know:
Price action is the primary indicator. As long as we remain above the crucial pivot support the bias should remain bullish.
A price break below this same level would, however, be quite bearish and volatile.
“ The trend is your friend- except in the end when it bends”