svenjamin

The weekly JSE Top 40 Index update.

The US Dollar monthly report.

The long term monthly report on BTC and ETH.

The monthly technical analysis update on the Rand against USD, GBP and Euro.

The periodic Copper technical analysis update.

Disclaimer: This is a purely technical view and no fundamentals have been harmed in the process.

While our medium-term bullish stance for 2024 has materialized, the recent break of previous tops suggests the possibility of extended gains beyond the long-held target levels.

Unfortunately, the break has come under overbought and diverging market conditions. The bullish advance over the past year has also been more corrective than trending.

The formation/ trend is therefore quite difficult to pinpoint with conviction.

There is a lot that we are uncertain about, so let us try and simplify it to what we do know:

Price action is the primary indicator. As long as we remain above the crucial pivot support the bias should remain bullish.
A price break below this same level would, however, be quite bearish and volatile.

“ The trend is your friend- except in the end when it bends”

The short- term update has been changed from the US Index to the EUR/USD pair.

EUR/USD is the preferred global trading currency and requests for short term analysis is therefore well founded

The US Dollar has broken out of a medium-term range with an increasing likelihood of more trending price action going forward.

Current weakening of the US Currency has a direct impact on global currencies, as well as related financial markets

If our medium-term view of continued volatile range trading is correct, then the next few months can be difficult for both bulls and bears. Target and pivotal levels are crucial in a market where sentiment extremes might just be a contrarian indicator for the time being.

A break of the consolidation parameters is required to activate a large trend.

It is a painful truth that the longer-term technical stance remains quite bullish on the eventual completion of the current consolidation.

Our medium-term bearish outlook on USD/ZAR is approaching important target support.

Moderate further downside in this pair remains part of a multi- year consolidation and most probably not the beginning of a long -term bear trend.

Bearish US Dollar sentiment has become commonplace as the major driver behind global currency moves, including the Rand.

A short update on the JSE TOP 40 index.

The market has reached and breached our immediate bullish target levels.

This results in an adjustment to the view for an extended bull phase to higher target levels.

The market is unfortunately over- extended, giving any bullish bias a high risk factor.