svenjamin

Crypto Weekly Report – 18 Sep 2024

The general consolidation in BTC continues in line with expectations and should have an eventual bullish outcome to new highs.

ETH have either completed or are in the process of completing the large bear trend. Our medium- term view is turning cautiously bullish after a prolonged negative stance.

While ETH has recently shown bullish reversal potential off target support, a break of the important pivot level that will confirm medium term gains has still not transpired.

Growing disparity between BTC and ETH outcomes has been a medium-term process and is expected to continue.

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US Dollar Weekly Report – 17 Sept 2024

The general bearish stance on USD seems to be materializing.

Important fundamental announcements and data might create a measure of volatility.

The US Currency impacts global financial markets, and it remains imperative for investors and traders to have an outlook on trend potential

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JSE TOP 40 Index Note – 16 Sep 2024

Global equity rhetoric and sentiment has recently become quite positive , due to several fundamental factors.

The technical scenario is in line with any immediate bullish bias, but the longer-term outlook remains more circumspect and even negative.

Our mandate is to give an objective technical perspective on analysed markets, independent of any other forecasting techniques.

Re- assessment and negation levels fortunately qualify the technical view and is, as always, important.

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Rand Weekly Report – 16 Sep 2024

The technical bearish stance is materializing and remains valid.

There are two alternative outcomes once the initial target area has been reached.

In this report we discuss both the preferred (less bearish) and alternative viewpoints.

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JSE Resources 10 Index note – 12 Sep 2024

Resource stocks are due a decent rebound from oversold and unloved conditions.

Whilst this might not yet be the end of the recent sharp bear trend, the longer-term outlook is that of maturing downside.

There is a glimmer of light at the end of the long term tunnel.

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Iron ore Report – 10 Sep 2024

Please find attached a iron ore technical analysis report, as requested by an All-In-One member.

The data has been quite difficult to get hold of – beg, steal and borrow!

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Crypto Weekly Report – 10 Sep 2024

The general consolidation in BTC is ongoing and should have an eventual bullish outcome.

ETH seems to have either completed or are in the process of completing the large bear trend.

Our medium- term view is turning cautiously bullish after a prolonged negative stance.

The technical outlook remains in stark contrast to our (somewhat irrelevant) fundamental outlook.

This analysis goes into a fair amount of detail.

It is not always the case and is largely driven by confirmation of the view in eliminating alternative outcome, allowing detail to be added to a report.

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US Dollar Weekly Report – 10 Sep 2024

The US Dollar, as the de- facto reserve currency of the world, is central to global finances, economic growth, and markets.

It is therefore a given that a continuous bombardment of fundamental, political, and macro- economic views and opinions abound.

This ranges from the extremely bullish “King Dollar” protagonists to the “ultimate demise” of the Greenback and imminent replacement by cryptocurrencies.

The news flow in this regard is at best confusing.

Technical analysis is helpful in simplifying the complexity to “what” can transpire, instead of “why” it could happen.

Our general bearish outlook on the US Dollar is based on market action. It is a probability study and there are always re- assessment levels where the outlook is adjusted or changed.

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JSE TOP 40 Note – 09 Sep 2024

The medium-term bearish outcome defies belief but is unfortunately the best objective technical outcome.

The bear trend is currently still unconfirmed and as such just a good idea, until pivotal support has been broken.

Pivotal and negation levels remain important for successful navigation of the market.

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USD/ZAR Weekly – 09 Sep 2024

The expected consolidation phase in the USD/ZAR pair is open to some interpretation.

While the shorter- term outcome is similar in nature between the two feasible alternatives, the long- term consequences and trend implications are different.

As always, developing price action will give us early insight into outcome probabilities.

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Cryptocurrency Report – 25 Nov 2024

The long held bullish view on cryptocurrencies have largely materialized towards relevant target levels.

It is always possible that the market can extend, but we assess that the risk of a bearish reversal has now become higher than further extensions of the bull trend.

“Markets can stay irrational longer than we can stay solvent”

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Rand Weekly Report – 25 Nov 2025

Note : As per usual this week will be the final reporting schedule for 2024.

While the recent bullish view and important target levels are retained,

Non classical short term market action and subdivisions in the move from 17.29 to current levels continues.

The preferred and illustrated interim outcome is therefore subject to a measure of short-term uncertainty.

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JSE Top 40 note – 28 Aug 2024

While our medium-term bullish stance for 2024 has materialized, the recent break of previous tops suggests the possibility of extended gains beyond the long-held target levels.

Unfortunately, the break has come under overbought and diverging market conditions. The bullish advance over the past year has also been more corrective than trending.

The formation/ trend is therefore quite difficult to pinpoint with conviction.

There is a lot that we are uncertain about, so let us try and simplify it to what we do know:

Price action is the primary indicator. As long as we remain above the crucial pivot support the bias should remain bullish.
A price break below this same level would, however, be quite bearish and volatile.

“ The trend is your friend- except in the end when it bends”

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US Dollar Report – 27 Aug 2024

The short- term update has been changed from the US Index to the EUR/USD pair.

EUR/USD is the preferred global trading currency and requests for short term analysis is therefore well founded

The US Dollar has broken out of a medium-term range with an increasing likelihood of more trending price action going forward.

Current weakening of the US Currency has a direct impact on global currencies, as well as related financial markets

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Weekly Cryptocurrency report – 26 Aug 2024

If our medium-term view of continued volatile range trading is correct, then the next few months can be difficult for both bulls and bears. Target and pivotal levels are crucial in a market where sentiment extremes might just be a contrarian indicator for the time being.

A break of the consolidation parameters is required to activate a large trend.

It is a painful truth that the longer-term technical stance remains quite bullish on the eventual completion of the current consolidation.

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Rand Weekly Report – 26 Aug 2024

Our medium-term bearish outlook on USD/ZAR is approaching important target support.

Moderate further downside in this pair remains part of a multi- year consolidation and most probably not the beginning of a long -term bear trend.

Bearish US Dollar sentiment has become commonplace as the major driver behind global currency moves, including the Rand.

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JSE TOP40 Interim Note – 21 Aug 2024

A short update on the JSE TOP 40 index.

The market has reached and breached our immediate bullish target levels.

This results in an adjustment to the view for an extended bull phase to higher target levels.

The market is unfortunately over- extended, giving any bullish bias a high risk factor.

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Gold Monthly Technical Preview – 19 Aug 2024

The long- term bull trend remains intact but showing signs of maturing.

In this report we speculate on the medium-term possible development of a trend ending formation, with consequent corrective price action.

This technical pattern is currently the preferred stance, but still requires near term price action to develop within defined parameters, as final confirmation.

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Cryptocurrencies Weekly Report – 19 Aug 2024

The market is currently undergoing a correction phase which is expected to lead to a bullish reversal.

The bullish trend is anticipated to reach T1/T2 levels.

The current price action is part of a larger corrective pattern, but there's room for other formations to occur.

The K** level is crucial for the overall market outlook.

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Rand Weekly Report – 19 Aug 2024

A well established, medium- term positive technical outlook on the Rand is now also becoming commonplace in the fundamental narrative. This could lead to further expected Rand appreciation.

As prevailing trend matures, we need to remain circumspect.

It is in a rattlesnakes’ nature to strike when least expected.

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