Dollar strength is testing both medium- and short-term target levels.
The probability of further meaningful gains from a technical analysis perspective is low, with extended market conditions at important levels.
While the view is for a bearish reversal and meaningful downside, this view will only be confirmed on breaching of stated pivots.
“Technical analysis is a probability study on future market action”
A technical outlook on CAT, as requested by an All-in-One Member.
The long held bullish view on cryptocurrencies have largely materialized towards relevant target levels.
It is always possible that the market can extend, but we assess that the risk of a bearish reversal has now become higher than further extensions of the bull trend.
“Markets can stay irrational longer than we can stay solvent”
For the technicians and perma- Rand bears we have added a short term second alternative outcome analysis.
This is a rare formation with a low probability of materializing. A breach of 17.35 will negate this outcome
Our long- term bullish stance on this market seems to be materializing at last.
Initial bullish price action has been sharp and is supportive of further gain potential over time.
The market is currently overbought and volatile interim swings are likely.
The view is purely technical. No fundamentals have been harmed or abused in any way!
A fair amount of detail outlining the general bull trend as an upward sloping wedge increases the risk of being wrong.
Recent medium term price action unfortunately points to this alternative as the preferred outcome.
It is not in line with the prevailing sentiment and our personal fundamental stance.
Bitcoin and Ethereum technical pictures continue to diverge.
While BTC is consolidating as part of a cyclical bull trend, the long-term outlook for ETH remains more muted with volatile moves within a wide trading range.
The goal of long-term analyses is to give a visual representation of trend potential.
It is not intended as a trading or timing input but does confirm the medium- and shorter-term views.
It is also a useful input onto strategic decision making.
Our medium to longer term bearish stance on the Greenback is ongoing.
Further weakening is expected to reach our long-held target levels.
This is unlikely to be the move that perma- bears expect to “ dethrone the US Dollar” . It is more likely a bearish correction in a cyclical bull trend.
The general outlook of Rand strength within larger consolidation patterns has materialized during September.
In the case of the USD/ZAR pair an extended bear phase had to be considered after the breach of initial targets, that is approaching the extended target area. The USD/ZAR move can largely be ascribed to recent USD weakness against most currencies.
The USD/ZAR and EUR/USD pairs have become extremely oversold and while there is short term room for further modest downside, the risk of bullish corrections is increasing.
The recent gains have been everything but a classic trending bull market.
Overlapping and volatile gains can be defined by a price channel.
Whilst this type of price action is common in corrections and consolidations, it is quite rare during general upside and making new highs.
The most plausible alternative/explanation for his is that a large and long term upward sloping wedge is forming.
The illustrated scenarios are self- explanatory.
The general US Dollar bearish trend remains intact and the most probable medium term technical outcome.
The general consolidation in BTC continues in line with expectations and should have an eventual bullish outcome to new highs.
ETH have completed the bear trend. Our medium- term bullish outlook is materializing after a prolonged negative stance. The recent break of pivotal levels has confirmed the illustrated outlook.
Current market action allows for a fair amount of detail to be included in the views. The goal is to portray a complete and comprehensive view. It is, however, unlikely to depict the exact outcome.
The market is currently testing our long held bearish target levels. A bottom has, however not been formed or confirmed yet.
In this report we discuss feasible short term alternative outcomes that could materialize,
given current extended market conditions, importance of cluster support, as well as the prevailing bullish sentiment and conviction.
The general consolidation in BTC continues in line with expectations and should have an eventual bullish outcome to new highs.
ETH have either completed or are in the process of completing the large bear trend. Our medium- term view is turning cautiously bullish after a prolonged negative stance.
While ETH has recently shown bullish reversal potential off target support, a break of the important pivot level that will confirm medium term gains has still not transpired.
Growing disparity between BTC and ETH outcomes has been a medium-term process and is expected to continue.
The general bearish stance on USD seems to be materializing.
Important fundamental announcements and data might create a measure of volatility.
The US Currency impacts global financial markets, and it remains imperative for investors and traders to have an outlook on trend potential