svenjamin

The medium-term bearish outcome defies belief but is unfortunately the best objective technical outcome.

The bear trend is currently still unconfirmed and as such just a good idea, until pivotal support has been broken.

Pivotal and negation levels remain important for successful navigation of the market.

The expected consolidation phase in the USD/ZAR pair is open to some interpretation.

While the shorter- term outcome is similar in nature between the two feasible alternatives, the long- term consequences and trend implications are different.

As always, developing price action will give us early insight into outcome probabilities.

The weekly JSE Top 40 Index update.

The US Dollar monthly report.

The long term monthly report on BTC and ETH.

The monthly technical analysis update on the Rand against USD, GBP and Euro.

The periodic Copper technical analysis update.

Disclaimer: This is a purely technical view and no fundamentals have been harmed in the process.

While our medium-term bullish stance for 2024 has materialized, the recent break of previous tops suggests the possibility of extended gains beyond the long-held target levels.

Unfortunately, the break has come under overbought and diverging market conditions. The bullish advance over the past year has also been more corrective than trending.

The formation/ trend is therefore quite difficult to pinpoint with conviction.

There is a lot that we are uncertain about, so let us try and simplify it to what we do know:

Price action is the primary indicator. As long as we remain above the crucial pivot support the bias should remain bullish.
A price break below this same level would, however, be quite bearish and volatile.

“ The trend is your friend- except in the end when it bends”

The short- term update has been changed from the US Index to the EUR/USD pair.

EUR/USD is the preferred global trading currency and requests for short term analysis is therefore well founded

The US Dollar has broken out of a medium-term range with an increasing likelihood of more trending price action going forward.

Current weakening of the US Currency has a direct impact on global currencies, as well as related financial markets

If our medium-term view of continued volatile range trading is correct, then the next few months can be difficult for both bulls and bears. Target and pivotal levels are crucial in a market where sentiment extremes might just be a contrarian indicator for the time being.

A break of the consolidation parameters is required to activate a large trend.

It is a painful truth that the longer-term technical stance remains quite bullish on the eventual completion of the current consolidation.